In the Hunt: The Buffalo Bills' Playoff Puzzle

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, NFL Quarterbacks

In the Hunt: The Buffalo Bills' Playoff Puzzle | The Wandering Buffalo

What a difference a week can make. Last week, the Bills were coming off one of the more embarrassing losses I can remember, losing at home to Denver. I want to be clear it wasn’t the strength of their opponent; it was the way they lost. I think it’s easy to look at Denver’s record and see their dismantling against Miami and just assume that the team is terrible. If you’re paying attention to the league, that Broncos team has been ascending and now sits at 5-5, three spots out of the playoffs and still alive. The loss was embarrassing because the defense gave the offense chances time after time, and the offense didn’t capitalize. When it came time for the defense to make one more stop, they had nothing left, and the Broncos got into field goal range. As I sat watching the game, I thought, “Well, he’s already missed once, and 2 he made just barely snuck in. It’s not over until it's over.” And I got to be right! Denver missed their field goal attempt, and the Bills won! Or did they? There was laundry on the field….

Having 12 men on the field for the final play of the game and giving them a second chance at a field goal was just embarrassing.

This loss was a double-edged sword. The offense has been looking off most of the year, and I think a lot of that can be attributed to Ken Dorsey. Would Dorsey have been fired had the Bills won? Probably not. I think the move was necessary, but the timing is still not great. The firing came after another conference loss, leaving the Bills very little room for error down the stretch if they want to make the playoffs.

Fast forward to now. Joe Brady has his first game under his belt as interim offensive coordinator, and boy, was it a good one. Joe Brady’s game plan and play calling had the rhythm and flow we’ve been talking about not being there. He had timely creative calls, good use of motion, and probably my favorite, great utilization of the running backs in the passing game. The offense started off slow but was able to put up 32 on a very good defense, capitalizing on opportunities the defense was giving them. Complimentary football. So, what does this mean for the Bills playoff aspirations?

While the Bills were struggling, there has been a lot of conversation of will they win the division? Will they even make the playoffs? I think that those were very fair questions and still are. Brady looked to be a giant positive to the offense, and the players looked like they were having fun again. That being said, I don’t want to put too much stock into one game against the Jets. There is still a very difficult schedule ahead of the Bills, and they currently sit one spot out if the playoffs if they started today. But what does the rest of the conference look like? Well, the good news is this is one of the wonkiest seasons I have ever seen, and any team can beat anybody on any given week. Not only is the division still in play (game and a half back from Miami), but the one seed isn’t completely out of reach! Yes, I know, that is very lofty thinking, and I’m not saying the Bills are going to do it, just saying the Bills are just 2 games back from the one seed with 7 games to play. A lot can happen. Let’s look at who is ahead of the Bills as of now.

Ravens 8-3

The Ravens have looked to me to be about the most complete team in the AFC right now. With some key injuries within their division, the path for them to win their division got a lot easier. If we’re looking at conference standings, they have lost Mark Andrews to injury, who is a giant piece of what they do on offense. It initially looked like he would be out the remainder of the season, but has since been reported that he may be able to come back this year. We will see what happens, but his loss is huge to that offense.

Chiefs 7-3

The Chiefs are the Chiefs. Every year I feel like they look more vulnerable and they win a bunch of ugly games, and they’re the one seed getting hot right before a playoff run. That being said, they don’t look like the same Chiefs teams and dare I say, they look vulnerable. They have the resume to back it up and will always get the benefit of the doubt for me until proven otherwise.

Jaguars 7-3

They have had a kind of quiet, sneaky good season. I don’t fear them as a team if we were to see them in the playoffs, but to get there, they do have a tiebreaker with the Bills. Their division opponent, Houston, is just a game back from them and ascending.

Dolphins 7-3

Probably my least favorite franchise. They have been on the upswing for a few years now, and they’re really putting it all together. Currently, a game and a half ahead of the Bills, playing them the last week of the season could be crucial. They have some pretty easy games coming up, but end their season against Dallas, at Baltimore, and against the Bills. Should be interesting.

Browns 7-3

The Browns have some of the worst luck in the league, and if it weren’t for a certain quarterback they signed, I would feel bad for them. That being said, that quarterback is out for the remainder of the season. I am not going to completely write them off because their defense is fantastic, but it’s looking like 38-year-old Joe Flacco might get a crack at quarterback for them. Yikes.

Texans 6-4

As previously mentioned, the Texans are a young, ascending team. They currently sit at 6-4 under the leadership of first-year coach DeMeco Ryans and first-year quarterback C.J. Stroud. They’ve been impressive throughout the season, but we’ll see if they can stack wins when it matters most.

Steelers 6-4

As long as Tomlin is the coach, you can never rule out the Steelers. The Steelers have been absolutely putrid on offense, but have still managed to win a bunch of games. One week after the Bills fired their OC, the Steelers did the same, firing Matt Canada. Will the move work out for the Steelers? We will have to wait and see.

There are a few teams in the mix below the Bills as well, but I wanted to look at who stands in our way and give some perspective that if the Bills play like we know they can, the path to the playoffs isn’t absurd. Of course, none of what I just talked about matters much if the Bills don’t come out and handle their business with a very tough remaining schedule.

Let me know what you think! Thanks for stopping in and reading probably the longest article I will ever write.

GO BILLS!

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Justin Goddard
CO-FOUNDER - CONTENT CREATOR