A change is a-coming!

As long as two decades ago, my friends and I engaged in regular discussion on NFL team building concepts that focus on a running back. Despite all of us loving the running back position, we all agreed that spending premium capital on a running back was not a wise choice.

You could see it even then. Who remembers the Denver backfield? You had backup RB’s getting the spotlight often, and promptly exceeding expectations. But it wasn’t just in Denver. Ask any fantasy player.

As my friends and I agreed back then, the running back value is more reliant on being in a good situation than almost any other NFL position. Your team has a good offensive line and at least a passable QB? GREAT! The running back potential increases.

Today, we are still seeing undrafted or late round picks making immediate impact for teams.

I remember strongly criticizing first round selections like Willis McGahee, or CJ Spiller. (I was even against the Marshawn Lynch pick) It wasn’t that I disliked the players – it was that I saw this as a waste of the first-round selection by not getting value out of our draft currency. In my mind at least, there were better ways to use draft picks.

NFL general managers slowly caught on to what fans already knew. Giving large salaries and guaranteed money to a running back hurts your ability to re-sign other key positions and lowers your chance of being competitive.

So how would a smart GM change and start making these roster building decisions differently?

Yeah so, which position is next?

Of course, with new trends there are those the test the waters before others: the trendsetters. These are the teams that are forwarding thinking, and willing to think outside the box. They are not afraid to go against traditional thinking. They will try new things based on any number of factors – which today may even be analytically supported with data.

There are also those teams that are slow to adapt: Think peak drought era Bills trying to win with the running game and defense in a pass heavy league. (Well, this is the way the NFL has always been!)

Today, I want to propose that the Bills could be trendsetters in one area: The Mike Linebacker position.

Huh? How do you figure that?

The Bills made a very brave decision to let a starting MLB test free agency. Tremaine Edmunds was 19 when he was drafted. (Bet you have not heard that before, huh?) This was a first-round pick, BY THIS REGIME. He was drafted and developed only to let him walk into free agency. It sometimes seemed impossible to have a balanced opinion because it seems that with this player, nobody wanted to hear the nuance. If someone disagreed with you, the only thing heard was either “HE IS TRASH” or “HE IS AWESOME!”

The truth (at least in my opinion) is that he was good, but far from great. In fact, I think he was a pretty good player. However, I was more than okay with letting a good player go as opposed to paying him a premium salary. I even hope the signing works out well for Chicago. I really do. But I don’t want to make a habit of paying premium salaries to players who are only good. It just doesn’t make sense in the long run – especially with a position like MLB.

You may have thought the Bills would draft a linebacker to replace him, and I think many of us thought a guy like Jack Campbell was destined to join the Bills…especially once he fell during the draft. Yet, that did not happen. Instead, the Bills drafted Dorian Williams – who is a backup WLB and special teams’ player? Huh? (Yeah, I don’t know either)

So, who is taking over the “all-important” Mike Linebacker role? Well, they drafted Terrell Bernard last year, a player who profiled more as a Matt Milano type as opposed to a true Mike. At the time, I thought that was interesting, and I theorized this might be how the Bills might want to move forward. (The base defense is basically nickel with Taron Johnson anyway)

It didn’t really happen at that time, as Tremaine was still the starter – but Bernard wasn’t really trusted to play yet even when Tremaine was not in the lineup.

Undrafted free agent Tyrell Dodson has the job right now – at least for the moment. Terrell Bernard has a “hammy” and has not played in a pre-season game at this point. This has many of the fans sounding the panic alarm – but the Bills are content to roll with what they have.

There have been interesting free agent names available late into free agency. As of the writing of this article, that is still true for a few players. Jarad Davis. Jon Bostic. Kyle Van Noy. Not stars, but players who could potentially represent somewhere close to replacement player value.

And yet, the Bills stay the course. No veteran free agent addition and no help through the draft. Why?

I think there are two reasons for this.

1. The value of a true run stopping MLB has diminished with the modern NFL passing game. Feels weird to think that right? Yet, I think it is true. The value of stopping the PASSING game has grown. Edge rushers and corners. Even the value of 3rd corners to cover the slot have become more pivotal.
   

2. You can find reasonable production from a MLB in many places, much like running backs.

Stopping the run game is just not as important to winning as it once was. It is true. Just as the running back is no longer the center of the offense, the MLB is no longer as crucial to the defense.

I want to be clear: I don’t think ANYONE can be the MLB (or even RB), but you can find reasonable production very easily. If you are a GM building your football team, you need to start prioritizing positions. This means salary allocation. If the MLB is suddenly deemed as not quite as important – you don’t want to spend as heavily on the position.

Does that make sense?

Consider the Bills excellent scoring offense and how that might mitigate the opponents run game. Having a potent offense increases the likelihood of having a lead late into the game, which directly impacts the other team’s offensive play calling – they are now playing from behind and need to catch up. The run game becomes much less important and may even be abandoned completely.

When you have a legit franchise QB on a second contract, it starts to take up your cap space quickly. You are forced to start assigning value to positions. Cincinnati’s impending situation with Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins may end up being a benchmark. Personally, I would rather invest in two wide receivers over the MLB. (but that is just me)

Side note: This conversation is directly related to a draft capital strategy too! Things like 5th year option and position scarcity should directly impact where you draft a position.

Sometime over the last few years - after trading up for Tremaine, the Bills have seemingly had a different concept of the value of that position. What may have caused it? I wish I had that answer, but I can certainly say the value of Tremaine was unappreciated for pass coverage. His value in the run game was just not quite on the same level.

Despite a few comments from Sean McDermott, the Bills do not seem overly concerned with the current state of this position. I wish I had the same confidence. It seems they went from spending a first-round pick to fill the position not that long ago – to arriving to a place that can be perceived as reckless.

Is there a world where the Bills are just smarter than the rest of the league right now? Maybe. We will see once the season starts, and we get a few games under our belt.

Two pre-season games don’t have me to the same level of panic as some…. but I am definitely curious how this experiment will play out.

I predict that soon, teams will start treating MLB like the RB – though not to the same drastic extent. I simply predict that this position will end up being more replaceable, and the expected archetype will change. The relative availability of MLB will directly impact salaries.

But what do I know? I am just a dumb podcaster.

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